New Generation of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Area Cologne/Aachen Considering the Uncertainties of the Input Data     

G. Grünthal  R. Wahlström 《Natural Hazards》2006,38(1-2):159-176

A new earthquake catalogue for central, northern and northwestern Europe with unified M_w magnitudes, in part derived from chi-square maximum likelihood regressions, forms the basis for seismic hazard calculations for the Lower Rhine Embayment. Uncertainties in the various input parameters are introduced, a detailed seismic zonation is performed and a recently developed technique for maximum expected magnitude estimation is adopted and quantified. Applying the logic tree algorithm, resulting hazard values with error estimates are obtained as fractile curves (median, 16% and 84% fractiles and mean) plotted for pga (peak ground acceleration; median values for Cologne 0.7 and 1.2 m/s² for probabilities of exceedence of 10% and 2%, respectively, in 50 years), 0.4 s (0.8 and 1.5 m/s²) and 1.0 s (0.3 and 0.5 m/s²) pseudoacclerations, and intensity (I₀ = 6.5 and 7.2). For the ground motion parameters, rock foundation is assumed. For the area near Cologne and Aachen, maps show the median and 84% fractile hazard for 2% probability of exceedence in 50 years based on pga (maximum median value about 1.5 m/s²), and 0.4 s (>2 m/s²) and 1.0 s (about 0.8 m/s²) pseudoaccelerations, all for rock. The pga 84% fractile map also has a maximum value above 2 m/s² and shows similarities with the median map for 0.4 s. In all maps, the maximum values fall within the area 6.2–6.3° E and 50.8–50.9° N, i.e., east of Aachen.  相似文献   

Surface temperature differences between minerals in crystalline rocks: Implications for granular disaggregation of granites through thermal fatigue   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Miguel Gmez-Heras  Bernard J. Smith  Rafael Fort 《Geomorphology》2006,78(3-4):236-249

Thermal expansion differences between minerals within rocks under insolation have previously been assumed to drive breakdown by means of granular disaggregation. However, there have been no definitive demonstrations of the efficacy of this weathering mechanism. Different surface temperatures between minerals should magnify thermal expansion differences, and thus subject adjacent minerals to repeated stresses that might cause breakdown through fatigue failure. This work confirms the existence of surface temperature differences between minerals in granitic rocks under simulated short-term temperature fluctuations so as to discriminate their potential for initiating granular disaggregation. The influence of colour, as a surrogate for albedo, and crystal size, as a function of thermal mass are specifically identified because of their ease of quantification. Four rock types with a range of these properties were examined, and subjected to repeated short-term temperature cycles by radiative heating and cooling under laboratory conditions. Results show that while albedo is the main control for overall and individual maximum temperatures, crystal size is the main factor controlling higher temperature differences between minerals. Thus, stones with large differences of mineral sizes can undergo magnified stresses due to thermal expansion differences.  相似文献   

Climatic characteristics of summer high temperature and assessment methods in the large cities of North China     

ZHANG Shangyin  ZHANG Dekuan  WANG Shourong  SONG Yanling 《地理学报》2006,16(1):13-22

Based on the high temperature data of June to August in 1961-2000 in North China, the high temperature weather processes are investigated, and a more complete data set for severe high temperature processes is created. The climatic characteristics of adverse high temperature weather in Beijing, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Jinan and Taiyuan are analyzed respectively. The major features of the East-Asia Subtropical High and Transformed Continental High are discussed. The outcomes indicate that the influence of both East Asia Subtropical High and Transformed Continental High on these weather events varies, by a larger margin, from one city to another over North China and they are also closely related to the relative humidity. It is found that the behaviours of East-Asia Subtropical High and Transformed Continental High are the major important systems that give rise to the summer high temperature weather over the region. Based on these findings, the 5-day, 10-day and monthly assessment models for such high impact events have been developed. The assessment outcomes prove to be useful in assessing severe high-temperature events in major cities of North China.  相似文献   

Climate change in Mt. Qomolangma region since 1971     

YANG Xuchao  ZHANG Yili  ZHANG Wei  YAN Yuping  WANG Zhaofeng  DING Mingjun  CHU Duo 《地理学报》2006,16(3):326-336

Using monthly average, maximum, minimum air temperature and monthly precipitation data from 5 weather stations in Mt. Qomolangma region in China from 1971 to 2004, climatic linear trend, moving average, low-pass filter and accumulated variance analysis methods, the spatial and temporal patterns of the climatic change in this region were analyzed. The main findings can be summarized as follows: (1) There is obvious ascending tendency for the interannual change of air temperature in Mt. Qomolangma region and the ascending tendency of Tingri, the highest station, is the most significant. The rate of increasing air temperature is 0.234 oC/decade in Mt. Qomolangma region, 0.302 oC/decade in Tingri. The air temperature increases more strongly in non-growing season. (2) Compared with China and the global average, the warming of Mt. Qomolangma region occurred early. The linear rates of temperature increase in Mt. Qomolangma region exceed those for China and the global average in the same period. This is attributed to the sensitivity of mountainous regions to climate change. (3) The southern and northern parts of Mt. Qomolangma region are quite different in precipitation changes. Stations in the northern part show increasing trends but are not statistically significant. Nyalam in the southern part shows a decreasing trend and the sudden decreasing of precipitation occurred in the early 1990s. (4) Compared with the previous studies, we find that the warming of Mt. Qomolangma high-elevation region is most significant in China in the same period. The highest automatic meteorological comprehensive observation station in the world set up at the base camp of Mt. Qomolangma with a height of 5032 m a.s.l will play an important role in monitoring the global climate change.  相似文献   

Seismicity, structure and rheology of the lithosphere in the Lake Baikal region   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：2  

Brian Emmerson  James Jackson  Dan McKenzie  Keith Priestley 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,167(3):1233-1272

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考虑滑脱效应和温度场的煤层气渗流数值模拟     

肖晓春  潘一山 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2006,17(3):91-95

由于煤层气的解吸热效应,煤层气的运移过程是一个非等温过程。因此,温度场对煤层气渗流有着重要的影响。前人在研究煤层气渗流规律的研究中并没有同时考虑滑脱效应和温度场因素的影响,而在实际的深部开采中综合考虑滑脱效应和温度场的影响对研究深部煤层气运移规律有着重要的意义。因此本文建立了考虑滑脱效应及温度场的煤层气渗流数学模型,利用有限元数值方法研究了考虑滑脱效应和温度场耦合的煤层气运移规律;研究了考虑滑脱效应和温度场对压力场分布的影响;对考虑滑脱效应及温度场因素的煤层气产量进行了预测。得出了随着温度的升高煤储层的压力在降低,温度的升高对煤层气的产量有着负面的影响这一重要结论。  相似文献   

Evidence of reworking and resuspension of carbonates during last glacial maximum and early deglacial period along the southwest coast of India     

Kamlesh Verma  M Sudhakar 《Journal of Earth System Science》2006,115(6):695-702

A gravity core collected from the upper slope of southwest of Quilon at a water depth of 776 m (Lat: 8°12′263″N, Long: 76°28′281″E) was analysed for texture (carbonate free), calcium carbonate and organic carbon. Variation in silicic fraction seems to be controlled by silt, i.e., enrichment from 15 ka BP to 10 ka BP and then constant in Holocene. Below 15 ka BP, the silicic fraction gets depleted compared to the Holocene section with a minimum around 21 ka BP. Clay content remains nearly constant except in the Holocene where it shows an enrichment. Carbonate content of less than 63 micron when computed by subtracting coarse fraction content from the total carbonate suggests that the total carbonates are mainly concentrated in the finer fraction. All these carbonate phases show an inverse relationship with silicic fraction except in Holocene. Below 15 ka BP, CaCO₃ dominates in sediments comprising more than 65%, such an increase is also seen in the coarse fraction. Coarse fraction from these sections contains abundant nodular type aggregates encrusting small forams. This period is marked by a high sedimentation rate comparable to Holocene. These parameters suggest that the productivity and precipitation have increased in the Holocene due to the intensification of the southwest monsoon. During the last glacial maximum and early deglacial period the high sedimentation rate indicates redeposition of the carbonates from the existing carbonate lithofacies situated between Quilon and Cape Comorin probably due to the slope instability.  相似文献   

自生片钠铝石的碳氧同位素特征及其成因意义   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

高玉巧  刘立 《高校地质学报》2006,12(4):522-529

自生片钠铝石的碳氧同位素特征可以为片钠铝石的成因研究提供重要的地球化学依据。以海拉尔盆地乌尔逊凹陷和松辽盆地孤店构造片钠铝石碳氧同位素分析为基础，结合国内外已报道的自生片钠铝石的碳氧同位素数据，对自生片钠铝石的碳氧同位素特征及其成因意义进行了探讨。研究表明，海拉尔盆地乌尔逊凹陷和松辽盆地南部孤店CO2气田砂岩中片钠铝石的δ13C范围分别为–5.3‰～–1.5‰（PDB）、–1.9‰～+0.3‰（PDB），均分布于含无机碳物质δ13C分布区间（－9.0‰～＋2.7‰）内。计算出的海拉尔盆地和松辽盆地与片钠铝石平衡的CO2气碳同位素分布范围分别为－10.7～－7.0‰（PDB）、－8.7～－6.9‰（PDB），表明片钠铝石绝大部分形成于无机CO2背景。实际地质观察中形成片钠铝石的CO2绝大多数为岩浆脱气来源，岩浆成因片钠铝石碳同位素分布范围为－5.5～＋4.5‰（PDB）。海拉尔盆地和松辽盆地的片钠铝石是岩浆成因CO2气运移、聚集的特征矿物。计算出的海拉尔盆地和松辽盆地片钠铝石沉淀时介质水的δ18O值范围为-14.3～-9.4‰（SMOW），表现为轻同位素的特点，表明片钠铝石形成时地层水为大气降水。计算出的海拉尔盆地片钠铝石同位素为52.7～93.6℃，与样品所在深度处的古地温范围（65.4～87.6℃）基本吻合。  相似文献   

吸水剖面综合解释方法及应用     

ZHANG Jian-min ZHAO Yong-zhong XU Jing HUANG Juan The Logging Company  Jilin Petroleum Group Co.  Ltd  Songyuan  Jilin  China 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2006,(Z2)

吉林油田同位素吸水剖面测井采用~(113)In同位素追踪技术,根据同位素追踪过程解释基本可以判断配水层段吸水情况。但是在注水井存在沾污、大孔道以及串槽等影响时,吸水面积确定比较困难。在同位素测井中增加井温、流量参数,通过多参数综合解释,不仅可以对沾污影响进行合理校正,确定准确的小层吸水量,而且能够正确判断各级封隔器、配水器的工作情况,在地层存在大孔道的情况下,确定地层的吸水面积。吸水剖面综合解释方法在吉林油田已普遍应用,见到明显的效果。  相似文献   

东中国海海温的一维模式研究     

秦正坤  孙照渤 《南京气象学院学报》2005,28(4):477-482

根据近海深度浅、热容量小的特点，建立了一个一维能量平衡模式，对东中国海年平均海温进行了模拟。模式较好地模拟出了平均海温的经向分布与纬向分布情况，结果与观测基本相符。同时还检验了模式对海温年际变化的模拟能力，得到了较好的结果。最后简要分析了能量平衡模式应用在近海上的优缺点。  相似文献